great piece! I have a small question: what is the difference between scramble for liquidity and dollar strenghth where you say "dollars get scarce globally because everyone needs them to buy energy" Thanks!
great note! a few questions (apologies if basic) if you don't mind confirming / clarifying
- seems that you are implying that the gold move is not purely a mechanical rebasing on DXY strength given XAU/JPY is weak?
- petrodollar demand: the oil spike translates to $5b-$10bn incremental demand for dollars; how does this move a trillion fx market?
- never really got to the bottom of "people selling gold to raise cash and degross" narrative. I know empirically this is true (COVID, 2008, etc.) but gold is a much smaller asset class compared to equities and bonds; most portfolios don't even own gold except for CBs. What's the catch here - just can't visualize it at a micro level
In the ‘ST short and LT long’ context you outlined, do you view Platinum and Palladium exposure as anything else than than ‘another beta play on gold’? Great note, thanks.
These past scenarios confounded by other things but prob need to sit tight for months..
https://macrodesk.ai/share/oil-supply-shock-safe/4af15ce6/c
great piece! I have a small question: what is the difference between scramble for liquidity and dollar strenghth where you say "dollars get scarce globally because everyone needs them to buy energy" Thanks!
Well, you can imagine a scramble for liquidity doesn’t have to be for dollar liquidity, though usually it is.
Vinny Lingham is building a gold backed stablecoin. Alex, you should create a gold backed stablecoin.
great note! a few questions (apologies if basic) if you don't mind confirming / clarifying
- seems that you are implying that the gold move is not purely a mechanical rebasing on DXY strength given XAU/JPY is weak?
- petrodollar demand: the oil spike translates to $5b-$10bn incremental demand for dollars; how does this move a trillion fx market?
- never really got to the bottom of "people selling gold to raise cash and degross" narrative. I know empirically this is true (COVID, 2008, etc.) but gold is a much smaller asset class compared to equities and bonds; most portfolios don't even own gold except for CBs. What's the catch here - just can't visualize it at a micro level
TYIA!! look forward to the next series
In the ‘ST short and LT long’ context you outlined, do you view Platinum and Palladium exposure as anything else than than ‘another beta play on gold’? Great note, thanks.
Great note and also excited for process going forward. 😀
Thanks! Enjoyed this one (as usual) and I’m excited you’re concentrating a bit more on teaching / taking us through your process