Totally agree, and directly feeling a lot of these dynamics. I wonder if Powell’s easing, which isn’t going to be that significant given fundamental conditions, will make that much of a difference. Better than nothing, I suppose!
Silicon Valley- long on vision, short on maths. The problem started when everyone thought they could be David Swenson and get the same result. The risk premium just got competed away.
The question to me is whether this is simply "back to normal" (and therefore a culling of the Pandemania excess), or is the normal fundamentally different (and more challenging). I think it's more the latter. Barriers to entry on software dev are lower than ever and "low hanging fruit" has been picked. The old "unicorn hunting" model needs some tweaks
Enjoyed reading the historical context behind unicorns and the funding drought. Are the PE/private debt posing any systemic risks? They are getting too intertwined with banks!
Totally agree, and directly feeling a lot of these dynamics. I wonder if Powell’s easing, which isn’t going to be that significant given fundamental conditions, will make that much of a difference. Better than nothing, I suppose!
Silicon Valley- long on vision, short on maths. The problem started when everyone thought they could be David Swenson and get the same result. The risk premium just got competed away.
It's a good post, and I've shared similar thoughts here and elswhere https://www.therandomwalk.co/p/10-charts-from-vc-land
The question to me is whether this is simply "back to normal" (and therefore a culling of the Pandemania excess), or is the normal fundamentally different (and more challenging). I think it's more the latter. Barriers to entry on software dev are lower than ever and "low hanging fruit" has been picked. The old "unicorn hunting" model needs some tweaks
Enjoyed reading the historical context behind unicorns and the funding drought. Are the PE/private debt posing any systemic risks? They are getting too intertwined with banks!