1) how often are you bearish (is this abnormal for you)?
2) this all seems to rest on how long the conflict lasts. What makes you so sure it will last longer than is priced in? What about the TACO? Are you saying even if there is a TACO, that it will be too late (because the economy was already weak even if oil comes back down)? And if this is the reasoning... Is it just based on a couple months of poor employment prints? Because the AI capex has seemed to support growth despite the slowdown in employment; I'm struggling to see why that can't continue. I assume that if there's a TACO and oil comes back down, credit spreads will come back in (although perhaps not all the way back), so credits can roll again without too much pain.
Some of us may not be interested in playing the market w puts and hedges etc especially for us retail guys in our 50s . How do you suggest investing in the oil trade . I was in on XLE but still have midstream companies . Where is the most upside other then the futures market . Please keep in mind some of your paying customers invest differently. Thanks and enjoy your articles
Great article. Agree re crude. Would rather avoid options/futures. What do you make of a product like BRNT to express similar view? Or better of just buying equities?
thoughts on silver professor campbell? I could see it taking a short term hit as markets risk off but I'd imagine an energy crisis only accelerates demand for solar, and silver as a result
Yes, just I think we’re in a scramble for liquidity right now and precious will get sold for dollars. If you can over hedge the dollars it’s worth toe in the water but we need gold to show strength first and right now it’s trading scared.
Curious around the preference for SPX puts vs QQQ’s. Seems like tech might be more crowded, expensive and already stalling even prior to this or is the idea that the mega cap tech is the safety trade here if things worsen?
Is it too late to buy HYG puts? Are they already too expensive? I’m long gold and energy producers bigly but don’t have any credit implosion protection
Thanks Alex! How much I learn from your posts!!! I insist on having the chance of getting your trade alerts. Keep it up! thanks
Out of gold for a bit. Too much dollar strength
I’ll be back tbc, just don’t like the balance of tails rn.
Ok we’re back, bought 15% delta gold and 5% silver and will look for option structures later
Thank you for great the post. Two questions....
1) how often are you bearish (is this abnormal for you)?
2) this all seems to rest on how long the conflict lasts. What makes you so sure it will last longer than is priced in? What about the TACO? Are you saying even if there is a TACO, that it will be too late (because the economy was already weak even if oil comes back down)? And if this is the reasoning... Is it just based on a couple months of poor employment prints? Because the AI capex has seemed to support growth despite the slowdown in employment; I'm struggling to see why that can't continue. I assume that if there's a TACO and oil comes back down, credit spreads will come back in (although perhaps not all the way back), so credits can roll again without too much pain.
Thanks!
Everybody is wishfully thinking taco, and that's why the market isn't moving, good luck - I'm not optimistic.
Some of us may not be interested in playing the market w puts and hedges etc especially for us retail guys in our 50s . How do you suggest investing in the oil trade . I was in on XLE but still have midstream companies . Where is the most upside other then the futures market . Please keep in mind some of your paying customers invest differently. Thanks and enjoy your articles
USO is a dirty hedge to futures but does the job in the short term. But not sure you want to buy it now.
Great article. Agree re crude. Would rather avoid options/futures. What do you make of a product like BRNT to express similar view? Or better of just buying equities?
thoughts on silver professor campbell? I could see it taking a short term hit as markets risk off but I'd imagine an energy crisis only accelerates demand for solar, and silver as a result
Yes, just I think we’re in a scramble for liquidity right now and precious will get sold for dollars. If you can over hedge the dollars it’s worth toe in the water but we need gold to show strength first and right now it’s trading scared.
What are your thoughts on /BZ futures further out, june july august?
Super timely and helpful, thank you!
Curious around the preference for SPX puts vs QQQ’s. Seems like tech might be more crowded, expensive and already stalling even prior to this or is the idea that the mega cap tech is the safety trade here if things worsen?
I haven’t looked at vol for qqq, tends to be a bit more expensive / higher implied correlation
Hi Alex. Thanks for the writeup!
What would make you second guess/invalidate your thesis? Agrees on all fronts fwiw, just curious.
Peace in the next three days
Hey Alex, Isn’t a falling gold to oil ratio bad for the miners? (At least vs the metal)
Yup, on margin
Great post. How do you rate miners?
Which equity positions are your highest convictions?
Is it too late to buy HYG puts? Are they already too expensive? I’m long gold and energy producers bigly but don’t have any credit implosion protection
Depends on how they open tbh