Brilliant analysis. I was born and grew up in Hong Kong — lived there for 15 years. I knew even back in the 90s that the 50 year promise of democracy in HK wouldn’t hold, and that China would steal as much IP as it could (microcosm: black markets for pirated software and movies were everywhere). It was plain and obvious to me that PRC would ALWAYS defect in pursuit of immediate and selfish power gains at the expense of everyone else. It’s their MO (opium wars, “century of humiliation”, civil war, communism, etc).
So I never understood why companies were willing to embrace the Chinese market by giving away IP in the process — OF COURSE the local Chinese company they established would take sensitive internal corporate IP and share it with others.
I'm Iranian, and if you consider my personal opinion as a PhD student, in these 44 years after the revolution, neither Iran nor America have respected agreements. It's not just related to Trump, and it's completely a two-sided issue. For example, we can talk about Iran's role in Syria during Obama's time and its impact on the Iran-US agreement and the subsequent effects.
I can talk about a long list, but I think these three examples should be sufficient:
The Afghanistan case in 2001 when Iran was helping America but was called part of the Axis of Evil, and the case where Obama gave several billion dollars in cash to Iran (to prevent tracking by the Treasury Department), part of which was transported by plane to Switzerland and was spent by Iran on proxy groups.
Also, we can talk about America's role in the overthrow of Mossadegh through the CIA (using criminal groups like Shaban Jafari شعبان بی مخ), which has affected Iran-US relations until today, and this role of America and the CIA was one of the main reasons for the 1979 revolution by the clerics in Iran.
talking about these matters is not interesting inside Iran and can be problematic. Have a good time :)
Absolutely fascinating. A brilliant piece of analysis. Needless to say I agree 100% with the conclusion, and have been suggesting since 2022 that the solution to the Ukraine war is to get China on side by supporting their claims to the parts of Russia that used to be part of China until 1858. The Hong Kong analogy.
A number of very interesting thoughts here (and more importantly, a framework for analysis). A couple of points: I am less convinced than you that the UK is a type A ally given recent events (Chagos, spying etc); the Siberia Taiwan swap approach is intriguing although I suspect Putin, at heart, is terrified of the prospect of Moscow becoming a branch office of
Beijing. I guess if his economy really starts to crater, that may be one of his few options left.
Brillant! Thanks for sharing.
Brilliant analysis. I was born and grew up in Hong Kong — lived there for 15 years. I knew even back in the 90s that the 50 year promise of democracy in HK wouldn’t hold, and that China would steal as much IP as it could (microcosm: black markets for pirated software and movies were everywhere). It was plain and obvious to me that PRC would ALWAYS defect in pursuit of immediate and selfish power gains at the expense of everyone else. It’s their MO (opium wars, “century of humiliation”, civil war, communism, etc).
So I never understood why companies were willing to embrace the Chinese market by giving away IP in the process — OF COURSE the local Chinese company they established would take sensitive internal corporate IP and share it with others.
Oh yeah, America is totally a country that respects agreements. Just look at the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) as a shining example! :)
I'd be interested in seeing someone score the bilateral Iran/US relationship, can you do it?
I'm Iranian, and if you consider my personal opinion as a PhD student, in these 44 years after the revolution, neither Iran nor America have respected agreements. It's not just related to Trump, and it's completely a two-sided issue. For example, we can talk about Iran's role in Syria during Obama's time and its impact on the Iran-US agreement and the subsequent effects.
ok so make a big list and score it then? I'd be interested in your take. Just go through the whole list, not one or two random events.
I can talk about a long list, but I think these three examples should be sufficient:
The Afghanistan case in 2001 when Iran was helping America but was called part of the Axis of Evil, and the case where Obama gave several billion dollars in cash to Iran (to prevent tracking by the Treasury Department), part of which was transported by plane to Switzerland and was spent by Iran on proxy groups.
Also, we can talk about America's role in the overthrow of Mossadegh through the CIA (using criminal groups like Shaban Jafari شعبان بی مخ), which has affected Iran-US relations until today, and this role of America and the CIA was one of the main reasons for the 1979 revolution by the clerics in Iran.
talking about these matters is not interesting inside Iran and can be problematic. Have a good time :)
The LTCM of geopolitics
Absolutely fascinating. A brilliant piece of analysis. Needless to say I agree 100% with the conclusion, and have been suggesting since 2022 that the solution to the Ukraine war is to get China on side by supporting their claims to the parts of Russia that used to be part of China until 1858. The Hong Kong analogy.
https://theonion.com/china-agrees-to-purchase-11-u-s-soybeans/
Grim Trigger is a great metal band name.
Great piece. Thanks for putting this together!
A number of very interesting thoughts here (and more importantly, a framework for analysis). A couple of points: I am less convinced than you that the UK is a type A ally given recent events (Chagos, spying etc); the Siberia Taiwan swap approach is intriguing although I suspect Putin, at heart, is terrified of the prospect of Moscow becoming a branch office of
Beijing. I guess if his economy really starts to crater, that may be one of his few options left.
Chagos is a disaster