Given the volatile nature of this administration, I wouldn’t be totally shocked if he announced the best deal you’ve ever seen to protect the US from fentanyl and says never-mind to the tariffs on Mexico and Canada. Or he goes ahead and doubles the tariffs to 50% on Tuesday.
I've seen tweets saying there's some sort of floor to the price of eligible goods to deal with this, but that's heresay and yes this is the question! You don't want to have to pay or do docs to do that kind of business. It really changes the economics and the logistics.
I'd also bet that there's a material amount of internal logistics software that has to be modified because it assumed that tariffs aren't a thing. Those seeminly small changes sometimes are big problems.
"Meanwhile, Gold in China continues to be our preferred way to play the likely depreciation from both the tariffs and the ongoing economic malaise in China resulting from the property bubble popping."
Given the volatile nature of this administration, I wouldn’t be totally shocked if he announced the best deal you’ve ever seen to protect the US from fentanyl and says never-mind to the tariffs on Mexico and Canada. Or he goes ahead and doubles the tariffs to 50% on Tuesday.
Exactly. There is no Overton Window anymore. Overtone has been defeated!
It'd be interesting to see if the end result is anything close to 25%. One of the recurring themes about auto production is that items cross the border multiple times - this article says 8 on average: https://www.marketplace.org/2017/03/24/when-it-cones-nafta-and-autos-parts-are-well-traveled/. That'll be hit with a 25% tariff on each trip, not 25% on the total part.
I've seen tweets saying there's some sort of floor to the price of eligible goods to deal with this, but that's heresay and yes this is the question! You don't want to have to pay or do docs to do that kind of business. It really changes the economics and the logistics.
Wonder if they're talking about the de minimus rule that's also being modified? https://www.hklaw.com/en/insights/publications/2025/01/cbp-proposes-to-modify-the-de-minimis-exemption (this is way out of any of my expertise)
I'd also bet that there's a material amount of internal logistics software that has to be modified because it assumed that tariffs aren't a thing. Those seeminly small changes sometimes are big problems.
What were the main factors of the significant contraction over the last year?
"Though note the significant contraction over the last year, bringing it to a more manageable 1% of US GDP. Something to dig into more."
how does one buy "gold in China"?
"Meanwhile, Gold in China continues to be our preferred way to play the likely depreciation from both the tariffs and the ongoing economic malaise in China resulting from the property bubble popping."