This is a great analysis, but I have serious concerns about US state and fiscal capacity that make me hesitant to fully agree.
You’ve mentioned before the implied bargain that Beijing has struck with the Chinese people: we keep you prosperous, but we stay in power.
I’m not sure that a similar dynamic doesn’t exist in USA at this point. A lot of the people who live here simply do not seem to like the country very much, and how far any government can count on them if their 401Ks crash and/or their benefits are reduced is debatable, at minimum.
FDR never had to worry about a giant pre-existing debt overhang.
And we didn’t just send the physical factories to China. We also surrendered a lot of the muscle memory you need to build things, period. You’re not fixing that in 5 years, especially if resources are constrained and you lack essential ingredients.
Prudent also to include morale factor. If China seizes Taiwan intact because US chose not to fight, then Chinese popular morale soars, Japan and S Korea discomfited, US Navy has pulled back... not the kinds of trends that indicate that US is really rearming for a long siege at distance, has slashed its unsustainable entitlements to free up resources, has a unified country, has the liquidity for 10 trillion injected into armament, etc....
Great piece as ever!! Curious if you have thoughts on risk to this perspective from serious domestic disturbance in the US or the US getting more involved in Ukraine? Cheers
This is a great analysis, but I have serious concerns about US state and fiscal capacity that make me hesitant to fully agree.
You’ve mentioned before the implied bargain that Beijing has struck with the Chinese people: we keep you prosperous, but we stay in power.
I’m not sure that a similar dynamic doesn’t exist in USA at this point. A lot of the people who live here simply do not seem to like the country very much, and how far any government can count on them if their 401Ks crash and/or their benefits are reduced is debatable, at minimum.
FDR never had to worry about a giant pre-existing debt overhang.
And we didn’t just send the physical factories to China. We also surrendered a lot of the muscle memory you need to build things, period. You’re not fixing that in 5 years, especially if resources are constrained and you lack essential ingredients.
I look forward to the next chapter.
Prudent also to include morale factor. If China seizes Taiwan intact because US chose not to fight, then Chinese popular morale soars, Japan and S Korea discomfited, US Navy has pulled back... not the kinds of trends that indicate that US is really rearming for a long siege at distance, has slashed its unsustainable entitlements to free up resources, has a unified country, has the liquidity for 10 trillion injected into armament, etc....
I am pretty confident that in your conflicts sample of 141 they're maybe 2 to 10 that are comparable to a conflict like China to USA.
Great piece as ever!! Curious if you have thoughts on risk to this perspective from serious domestic disturbance in the US or the US getting more involved in Ukraine? Cheers