What happens geopolitically if the pressure release is through the currency? A depreciation of the CNY would piss off everybody as that would make their exports really cheap versus the G7/G20 economies. And with the US wanting to re-shore that becomes pretty difficult with a strong dollar. And if they all retaliate using tariffs what stops China from retaliating using its dominance in the supply chains. And then what happens to US companies in China? You have Apple selling iphones in Yuan. The stock will take a hit and drag SP500 with it. Cheers.
Thank you for another super thoughtful piece and trading idea.
Question if I may, what about a miner leg for the gold-in-China trade? For example, being long Zijin Gold, either directly or by selling puts targeting its breakout level around 155 HKD ?
It seems the end of the piece is missing
“ The Structural Longs
Some other trades we are looking closer at lately…”
What happens geopolitically if the pressure release is through the currency? A depreciation of the CNY would piss off everybody as that would make their exports really cheap versus the G7/G20 economies. And with the US wanting to re-shore that becomes pretty difficult with a strong dollar. And if they all retaliate using tariffs what stops China from retaliating using its dominance in the supply chains. And then what happens to US companies in China? You have Apple selling iphones in Yuan. The stock will take a hit and drag SP500 with it. Cheers.
What do you think could be the market trigger? Big 4 banks have done very well the last 2 years. Would you look at technicals?
Thank you for another super thoughtful piece and trading idea.
Question if I may, what about a miner leg for the gold-in-China trade? For example, being long Zijin Gold, either directly or by selling puts targeting its breakout level around 155 HKD ?
not sure I like sell puts, unless you are delta hedging and unless the IV is just much higher than your expected RV
Just being long zijin has been a great trade over the last 10 years.