Alex, great piece. When you have some time (😁) I’d like to hear your perspective on the “inflation” implications of rising crude prices. Friedman, is famous for pointing out that inflation is “always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon”, ie, inflation comes from “money printing”, not commodity price shocks . If what we are seeing right now is an oil price shock, which will no doubt create a price shock wave in other downstream commodities, how do you think the longer end of the credit markets will respond? And is a Warsh fed really going to set policy off of an oil influenced CPI? Thx, Liam
Alex, great piece. When you have some time (😁) I’d like to hear your perspective on the “inflation” implications of rising crude prices. Friedman, is famous for pointing out that inflation is “always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon”, ie, inflation comes from “money printing”, not commodity price shocks . If what we are seeing right now is an oil price shock, which will no doubt create a price shock wave in other downstream commodities, how do you think the longer end of the credit markets will respond? And is a Warsh fed really going to set policy off of an oil influenced CPI? Thx, Liam
Does inflation go high enough to push the yields on the long end high enough to break the housing market?