The first obvious implication of this tradeoff is the valve itself, “Gold in China.” Now that we have confirmation they intend to ease their way out, you might want to double up the short CNY leg, as it actually only has half the volatility as the gold/usd leg, and so to be fair, you don’t just want gold denominated in CNY, you actually probably want gold AND dollars."
the similar could be said for many US banks, who hide their bond loses, CRE loses... and besides bonds, the largest swamp is huge pool of credit in connection with private equity funds, where valuations are very often imafinary.
"Trillions of dollars of losses relating to real estate sitting on books, leaving policymakers the Sophie's Choice between letting the currency peg go by printing, and restructuring the banking system. The former bearish for the RMB and the latter bullish for gold, silver and other real, portable assets."
I agree with you on the first part but I wonder why there would continued adoption of bitcoin by traditional financial institutions and asset managers if there not much of much of utility in it...?
"24. Crypto can be cool, or crypto can be money, it cannot be both.
Nothing new here. Same story as last year, though marginal better as capital flight from China, combined with the potential for national reserve accumulation, should drive demand for crypto as a financial asset. At the same time, it’s use as a technology to change our day to day world still remains under expectations.
Most tech folks overestimate the average human’s interest in engaging with technology, myself included. When it comes to money, this is game over. Your money aught be the dumbest, simplest, most reliable tech you have. The ability to store, spend and save. As crypto continues to evolve, we see most of the value creation occurring at the financial intermediary layer. The exchanges, wallet hosts, and other intermediaries which wrap crypto financial services in consumer friendly products. You could go much much deeper here, and many have. For the time being I continue to like Coinbase as the market leader the likely beneficiary of continued adoption of bitcoin by traditional financial institutions and asset managers."
Great write up! Thank you for the ideas to ponder on
Interesting piece.
How does one buy "gold in China"?
"Gold in China
The first obvious implication of this tradeoff is the valve itself, “Gold in China.” Now that we have confirmation they intend to ease their way out, you might want to double up the short CNY leg, as it actually only has half the volatility as the gold/usd leg, and so to be fair, you don’t just want gold denominated in CNY, you actually probably want gold AND dollars."
the similar could be said for many US banks, who hide their bond loses, CRE loses... and besides bonds, the largest swamp is huge pool of credit in connection with private equity funds, where valuations are very often imafinary.
"Trillions of dollars of losses relating to real estate sitting on books, leaving policymakers the Sophie's Choice between letting the currency peg go by printing, and restructuring the banking system. The former bearish for the RMB and the latter bullish for gold, silver and other real, portable assets."
what are potential investment implications of 16. & 18. ?
What investments do you suggest for no.6?
what/who is meant by "government" in blue, on the Syria map?
I agree with you on the first part but I wonder why there would continued adoption of bitcoin by traditional financial institutions and asset managers if there not much of much of utility in it...?
"24. Crypto can be cool, or crypto can be money, it cannot be both.
Nothing new here. Same story as last year, though marginal better as capital flight from China, combined with the potential for national reserve accumulation, should drive demand for crypto as a financial asset. At the same time, it’s use as a technology to change our day to day world still remains under expectations.
Most tech folks overestimate the average human’s interest in engaging with technology, myself included. When it comes to money, this is game over. Your money aught be the dumbest, simplest, most reliable tech you have. The ability to store, spend and save. As crypto continues to evolve, we see most of the value creation occurring at the financial intermediary layer. The exchanges, wallet hosts, and other intermediaries which wrap crypto financial services in consumer friendly products. You could go much much deeper here, and many have. For the time being I continue to like Coinbase as the market leader the likely beneficiary of continued adoption of bitcoin by traditional financial institutions and asset managers."
How does one buy "gold in China"?