Thanks for hashing it out. Agree with everything you wrote. How do you assess the likelihood/impact of geopolitical tensions declining - Trump returns all Russian reserves, pulls back on sanctions in general, and reaches some kind of workable detente with China?
Yeah fair question. Also the movement in bonds w Bisset (sp?) appointment to treasury indicates bond investors are bullish on his ability to attract investment and keep inflation down.
Re detente, watch Ukraine, N Korea and Taiwan! Methinks it has less to do with Trump and more where we are in the great power game but it’s a totally reasonable question!
“(though there is debate on whether Trump + Elon will follow through on their promise to cut $2 of spending, which would likely reduce the deficit and push up the dollar (and hence be bad for gold)”
Yeah, I question whether they will cut $2 of (net) spending. Slightly more serious on that subject, I am still trying to get my mind around the extent to which it is true and how long it will remain true that every crisis is good for the dollar, particularly in the context of possible congressional debt limit or budget lunacy in the next year or two.
Thanks for hashing it out. Agree with everything you wrote. How do you assess the likelihood/impact of geopolitical tensions declining - Trump returns all Russian reserves, pulls back on sanctions in general, and reaches some kind of workable detente with China?
Yeah fair question. Also the movement in bonds w Bisset (sp?) appointment to treasury indicates bond investors are bullish on his ability to attract investment and keep inflation down.
Re detente, watch Ukraine, N Korea and Taiwan! Methinks it has less to do with Trump and more where we are in the great power game but it’s a totally reasonable question!
How does one buy gold in China?
I had to chuckle at this (presumed) typo:
“(though there is debate on whether Trump + Elon will follow through on their promise to cut $2 of spending, which would likely reduce the deficit and push up the dollar (and hence be bad for gold)”
Yeah, I question whether they will cut $2 of (net) spending. Slightly more serious on that subject, I am still trying to get my mind around the extent to which it is true and how long it will remain true that every crisis is good for the dollar, particularly in the context of possible congressional debt limit or budget lunacy in the next year or two.