So now coming here, what's the implicit 'bargain' you want now?
Give us 100% of your assets on death and we'll mine space rocks for your kids?
Only provocative here, because you go from a pithy encapsulation to 58 policy proposals. It's hard to comment in real time consuming the whole timeline, but what's the goal?
One way you could frame the implicit deal of the past 30-35 years post Cold War was 'lift all global boats, and we'll effectively have peace and rising markets... forever. Everyone can get rich!' That failed miserably. People *feel* worse off than their parents because wealth inequality is so much easier to see and consumed everyday. Access to cheap credit and private equity and VC opportunities was not evenly distributed - labor couldn't even come close to keeping up.
We now know how stark market failure is with rival goods, cheap credit, and large foreign investment. Pure gambling and speculation can't be the only way out for most people.
In many ways, land for hard work was a better bargain, because you had some control over your fate.
Today, it feels completely out of people's control. The "college" for "middle class life" bargain failed miserably.
Hey Alex, I hope this spreadsheet of yours turns into a massive Excel model that DOGE pipes into. I'd love to see it EXPAND (leveraging GenAI and/or Rose). You know 5 columns of Impact, Reward sort of metrics. 3 columns of Risk or conviction metrics. Rank order by Reward/Risk in each category. and so on.
The Domestic one for sure!!!
The "Global Position" one is a little ... more challenging. :) Indian Caste system - meh. China and BRICs were all the rage as we very well know (BRICS ETF marked the top, no?) Sinophobia and Russophobia ought to be as shameful as they were not that long ago... I hope you don't think I'm accusing you of that. I am not. I just saw these coming since 2014-2015 (as did Dalio and plenty of astute students of history and between-the-lines-readers). You're on of those very few people who know the dark history of US Corporations ("The Gangs of America") and know the difference between Left Totalitarianism and "China with capitalist characteristics".
(1) Technology enables and leads Ideologies and (2) allows for LEAPFROGING (ie digital payments in China vs US). I challenge us all to leapfrog into a post-nation-state-Identity age! It's too bad the "non-binary" label got jacked by the sexual-Orientalists ( ;) ), when there are err 10x as many ETHNICALLY "non-binary" people, no? Of course, we still have the Royals in the UK, but the US emperors just keep insisting more and more how fully clothed they are. They just keep dressing it up in hot-air narratives around TSLA and NVDA and fueling it with Deep OTM 0-4 day dated call options.
Now, you know, i know, you know that there are NO precedents in any prior financial bubbles of using that LEVEL of OTM-ness and that "duration" of expiration to pump up some white South-African jam!
So indeed, Bernanke was a student of the GD, and we TARPd and TARPd and finally suspended MTM in 3/09 (FASB called it "improvement", not "suspension").
So we did avoid the deflationary depression, but while WE got the bridge, perhaps a whole lot of human collateral damage is manifesting in ZOMBIES on private, public and cultural levels, to put it lightly.
Saying all this negative stuff, just so we take a step back from "Exceptional" and "Global Position" and remember that we did start posturing a tad hard in 2016. ("the medium is the message", we can thank FB/Twitter and Springiness of the platforms' UI-UX paradigm).
Uber and Airbnb didn't ask permission and at least theoretically we've been in a global village for quite some time. So I urge you to PIVOT!!!
Shape public policy. Call it whatever you want. But build for the modern exponential-AI powered future and leverage the AI tools.
We were on the verge of Anarchy (not even the boogie of Communism) in the 1930s... We had to threaten the Supreme courts with stacking to get it done and more than once. So I think that's why it's so key to tap into the same sh1t Bernie, Trump and Brexit tapped into in 2016... but of course the TOOLS and the MEDIUMS have changed for 2025.
I apologize if I sound negative, but I've been around the USSR and Subprime Securitization blocks. Digital nomad for 7+ years, CFA for almost 20. You are brilliant!!! I truly want to encourage you to turn this spreadsheet into living models. One way or another, just seems that transparency and best practices will find their way into Public policy world-wide in 1-2 years - thanks to genAI, blockhains/crypto, and those damn Debt/GDP burdens... although rankly I hate it when we divide BalSht Liabilities by Obsolete Income Statement Metrics. :)
Remember how GDP calc and SEC T-margin mandate were creations of 1930s, too. Fking amazing. 10% OTM calls on TSLA and NVDA for 6 years running. I'll take those Ghost cities for $10T, Alex. :)
yeah for a while i was going to write up each one of these, but that's a longer term project. will try to get to them occasionally though, thanks for the feedback and glad you liked it!
As Spock would say to Cap. Kirk, “Fascinating”.
So now coming here, what's the implicit 'bargain' you want now?
Give us 100% of your assets on death and we'll mine space rocks for your kids?
Only provocative here, because you go from a pithy encapsulation to 58 policy proposals. It's hard to comment in real time consuming the whole timeline, but what's the goal?
One way you could frame the implicit deal of the past 30-35 years post Cold War was 'lift all global boats, and we'll effectively have peace and rising markets... forever. Everyone can get rich!' That failed miserably. People *feel* worse off than their parents because wealth inequality is so much easier to see and consumed everyday. Access to cheap credit and private equity and VC opportunities was not evenly distributed - labor couldn't even come close to keeping up.
We now know how stark market failure is with rival goods, cheap credit, and large foreign investment. Pure gambling and speculation can't be the only way out for most people.
In many ways, land for hard work was a better bargain, because you had some control over your fate.
Today, it feels completely out of people's control. The "college" for "middle class life" bargain failed miserably.
So what's next?
Hey Alex, I hope this spreadsheet of yours turns into a massive Excel model that DOGE pipes into. I'd love to see it EXPAND (leveraging GenAI and/or Rose). You know 5 columns of Impact, Reward sort of metrics. 3 columns of Risk or conviction metrics. Rank order by Reward/Risk in each category. and so on.
The Domestic one for sure!!!
The "Global Position" one is a little ... more challenging. :) Indian Caste system - meh. China and BRICs were all the rage as we very well know (BRICS ETF marked the top, no?) Sinophobia and Russophobia ought to be as shameful as they were not that long ago... I hope you don't think I'm accusing you of that. I am not. I just saw these coming since 2014-2015 (as did Dalio and plenty of astute students of history and between-the-lines-readers). You're on of those very few people who know the dark history of US Corporations ("The Gangs of America") and know the difference between Left Totalitarianism and "China with capitalist characteristics".
(1) Technology enables and leads Ideologies and (2) allows for LEAPFROGING (ie digital payments in China vs US). I challenge us all to leapfrog into a post-nation-state-Identity age! It's too bad the "non-binary" label got jacked by the sexual-Orientalists ( ;) ), when there are err 10x as many ETHNICALLY "non-binary" people, no? Of course, we still have the Royals in the UK, but the US emperors just keep insisting more and more how fully clothed they are. They just keep dressing it up in hot-air narratives around TSLA and NVDA and fueling it with Deep OTM 0-4 day dated call options.
Now, you know, i know, you know that there are NO precedents in any prior financial bubbles of using that LEVEL of OTM-ness and that "duration" of expiration to pump up some white South-African jam!
So indeed, Bernanke was a student of the GD, and we TARPd and TARPd and finally suspended MTM in 3/09 (FASB called it "improvement", not "suspension").
So we did avoid the deflationary depression, but while WE got the bridge, perhaps a whole lot of human collateral damage is manifesting in ZOMBIES on private, public and cultural levels, to put it lightly.
Saying all this negative stuff, just so we take a step back from "Exceptional" and "Global Position" and remember that we did start posturing a tad hard in 2016. ("the medium is the message", we can thank FB/Twitter and Springiness of the platforms' UI-UX paradigm).
Uber and Airbnb didn't ask permission and at least theoretically we've been in a global village for quite some time. So I urge you to PIVOT!!!
Shape public policy. Call it whatever you want. But build for the modern exponential-AI powered future and leverage the AI tools.
We were on the verge of Anarchy (not even the boogie of Communism) in the 1930s... We had to threaten the Supreme courts with stacking to get it done and more than once. So I think that's why it's so key to tap into the same sh1t Bernie, Trump and Brexit tapped into in 2016... but of course the TOOLS and the MEDIUMS have changed for 2025.
I apologize if I sound negative, but I've been around the USSR and Subprime Securitization blocks. Digital nomad for 7+ years, CFA for almost 20. You are brilliant!!! I truly want to encourage you to turn this spreadsheet into living models. One way or another, just seems that transparency and best practices will find their way into Public policy world-wide in 1-2 years - thanks to genAI, blockhains/crypto, and those damn Debt/GDP burdens... although rankly I hate it when we divide BalSht Liabilities by Obsolete Income Statement Metrics. :)
Remember how GDP calc and SEC T-margin mandate were creations of 1930s, too. Fking amazing. 10% OTM calls on TSLA and NVDA for 6 years running. I'll take those Ghost cities for $10T, Alex. :)
yeah for a while i was going to write up each one of these, but that's a longer term project. will try to get to them occasionally though, thanks for the feedback and glad you liked it!