Hi Campbell, thanks for sharing your thoughts. It's a gread read. Regarding the physical premium, please check this link, https://cpmgroup.com/chinese-silver-prices/. CPM group claims that Shanghai Silver Future quotes include a 13% VAT.
"Now that the secret is out that property is not a safe store of wealth", china's defaults are not a recent secret, right?
Another thing I don't get: buying gold in order to de-dollarize but most of the gold is stored in US it doesn't make sense. What happens when US will seize it?
Good info on the Shanghai premium and COMEX drawdown pace. It made me reframe the silver story as a slow-motion regime shift driven by Chinese capital flight, EM savers, and European institutions. Nice Moon, too.
You do give a real framework and not just a victory lap on a great trade.
Isn't "More power demand means more solar" a jump in assumption. Wouldn't it be better to assume more nuclear (US nuclear investment) or increased Nat gas/oil for immediate energy needs? Stargate is building solar panels but also building Nat gas plant for 'backup' energy.
I’ve been trading this via SI futs options and one thing I noticed today is that long dated options (Jun+) are no longer being quoted, in many cases at all and in others the spreads going from ~2 to ~20. Any thoughts as to what might be going on there or if it’s relevant?
Hi Campbell, thanks for sharing your thoughts. It's a gread read. Regarding the physical premium, please check this link, https://cpmgroup.com/chinese-silver-prices/. CPM group claims that Shanghai Silver Future quotes include a 13% VAT.
yes but the VAT has been there since 2019, so the it's the change in the premium not the level which tells you about demand pressure imho
That claim might not be true, Alex. After some google searches, I think the quoted prices don’t include the VAT. Thank you for your response.
Physical silver as a store of wealth is not practical because of the volume (physical) that would raise storage concerns.
People prefer Gold because there’s less of it & can also wear it as Jewelry.
Don’t see Chinese moving to Silver over Gold.
aren't Chinese afraid of seizure by the comunists? I don't get this part
"Now that the secret is out that property is not a safe store of wealth", china's defaults are not a recent secret, right?
Another thing I don't get: buying gold in order to de-dollarize but most of the gold is stored in US it doesn't make sense. What happens when US will seize it?
did you see Germany asking for their gold back?
and how much Silver is produced via Copper? https://open.substack.com/pub/ctindale/p/copper-limits-to-growth-in-the-age?r=kiun&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=overlay
Watch the flows, not the price.
Good info on the Shanghai premium and COMEX drawdown pace. It made me reframe the silver story as a slow-motion regime shift driven by Chinese capital flight, EM savers, and European institutions. Nice Moon, too.
You do give a real framework and not just a victory lap on a great trade.
Isn't "More power demand means more solar" a jump in assumption. Wouldn't it be better to assume more nuclear (US nuclear investment) or increased Nat gas/oil for immediate energy needs? Stargate is building solar panels but also building Nat gas plant for 'backup' energy.
all of the above
I’ve been trading this via SI futs options and one thing I noticed today is that long dated options (Jun+) are no longer being quoted, in many cases at all and in others the spreads going from ~2 to ~20. Any thoughts as to what might be going on there or if it’s relevant?
Great news, Great Analysis.
Really great analysis