What does it mean to be transitory?
Great writing! I hear that you disagree with the market implied rates/probabilities. =) By how much and at what pace do you think they'll cut then?
Haven't done the pen to paper in a while but I think 25bps next cut and then the pace will be about half of what mkts are discounting rn in terms of pace. At least if the economy holds here. If we get a move in credit, all bets are off.
yea, agreed. Credits look fine for now I guess. Not sure if it's recession or Trump policies being priced in here.
Good stuff Alex.
Great writing! I hear that you disagree with the market implied rates/probabilities. =) By how much and at what pace do you think they'll cut then?
Haven't done the pen to paper in a while but I think 25bps next cut and then the pace will be about half of what mkts are discounting rn in terms of pace. At least if the economy holds here. If we get a move in credit, all bets are off.
yea, agreed. Credits look fine for now I guess. Not sure if it's recession or Trump policies being priced in here.
Good stuff Alex.