literally laughing out loud cuz (i) social engineering - let's be real. (ii) i played THAT EXACT same game and dare not talk about it with anyone. i also won with that optimal strategy...
I love your jousting with AI, makes me feel I am not so crazy for doing that as well! On a serious note, good note, the virus narrative overlaying war, midterms etc… might be a boon to trade commods space!
Suggest hospitalized CFR of 13.3% which would imply community CFR much lower.
“The 40% fatality figure: an artefact of who gets counted.
The 40% case fatality rate (CFR) figure comes specifically from hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS), an outcome in a subset of hanta infections.
This is the severe cardiopulmonary presentation. It excludes subclinical infections that resolved without anyone noticing more than “a touch of flu”.
In Jujuy Province, Argentina, the seroprevalence (rate at which people have antibodies due to hanta infection) is 6.5%. Hospitalised HPS cases had a CFR of 13.3%, but most patients were described as having a mild clinical course.
Disclaimer: although an Argentine outbreak, this has not been confirmed as ANDV.
The 40% is the fatality rate among people sick enough to be diagnosed and hospitalised.
It is not the infection fatality rate.
These are not the same thing, and conflating them is causing significant confusion”
Thanks for the note Alex, I wasn't really paying (enough) attention to the Hantavirus situation. May I ask a couple of questions regarding your current oil position just to better understand? In the trade blotter you updated your switch WTI/Brent but not strikes (is it still a spread? ITM/ATM/OOM?). Now with position delta hedged will you adjust your delta daily? I might be completely wrong, but what I don't fancy about the position is looking at the different paths: 1) you will most certainly make money if war comes back on gamma and vol but less than on unhedged position 2)You might make money if Hantavirus creates demand destruction (depending on speed of demand destruction and vol reaction) 3) You probably lose money if status quo persists (eg oil grinds higher but vol doesn't realize what's priced in). Have to think about the airline part you said. Maybe shorting airlines would keep the oil long alive while also being hedged against Hantavirus causing oil to drop? Many thanks
literally laughing out loud cuz (i) social engineering - let's be real. (ii) i played THAT EXACT same game and dare not talk about it with anyone. i also won with that optimal strategy...
No one is talking about this!!
Alex, ask your AI to recommend the current best uncensored local LLM models on Hugging Face and try on those locally.
Yeah I used to play w wizard but that 18m ago
I love your jousting with AI, makes me feel I am not so crazy for doing that as well! On a serious note, good note, the virus narrative overlaying war, midterms etc… might be a boon to trade commods space!
Update: fair point from this tweet from an actual biologist, may be sampling bias in the denominator of the CFR
https://x.com/fondofbeetles/status/2054559139552997828?s=46
Suggest hospitalized CFR of 13.3% which would imply community CFR much lower.
“The 40% fatality figure: an artefact of who gets counted.
The 40% case fatality rate (CFR) figure comes specifically from hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS), an outcome in a subset of hanta infections.
This is the severe cardiopulmonary presentation. It excludes subclinical infections that resolved without anyone noticing more than “a touch of flu”.
In Jujuy Province, Argentina, the seroprevalence (rate at which people have antibodies due to hanta infection) is 6.5%. Hospitalised HPS cases had a CFR of 13.3%, but most patients were described as having a mild clinical course.
Disclaimer: although an Argentine outbreak, this has not been confirmed as ANDV.
The 40% is the fatality rate among people sick enough to be diagnosed and hospitalised.
It is not the infection fatality rate.
These are not the same thing, and conflating them is causing significant confusion”
Sooner or later, we’ll need to find a way to get around these censoring to get an edge.
Thanks for the note Alex, I wasn't really paying (enough) attention to the Hantavirus situation. May I ask a couple of questions regarding your current oil position just to better understand? In the trade blotter you updated your switch WTI/Brent but not strikes (is it still a spread? ITM/ATM/OOM?). Now with position delta hedged will you adjust your delta daily? I might be completely wrong, but what I don't fancy about the position is looking at the different paths: 1) you will most certainly make money if war comes back on gamma and vol but less than on unhedged position 2)You might make money if Hantavirus creates demand destruction (depending on speed of demand destruction and vol reaction) 3) You probably lose money if status quo persists (eg oil grinds higher but vol doesn't realize what's priced in). Have to think about the airline part you said. Maybe shorting airlines would keep the oil long alive while also being hedged against Hantavirus causing oil to drop? Many thanks