Great piece. It is a kaleidoscope of cross currents out there. Today’s gold and silver move was a surprise. I completed last week an Irish exit over several months into $RFIX, Harley Bassman’s timely (but early) and latest ETF, which provides a 4.5% carry and holds a six year call on duration. There’s lots of room for 10Y yields to come in and rate vol is cheap as chips.
Any thoughts on Michael Howell’s commentary on global liquidity starting to taper off? Potentially leading to the unwind of the crowded long ai trade you’re talking about?
He just suggests that by his calculation the rate of expansion of bank reserves and collateral in the system is slowing after a 3 year expansion. And so he suggests that risk assets are going to be extremely sensitive to this slowing.
already closed my steepner. will look to see how the market is playing tomorrow, I think if we go lower, we see something like 4-6 cuts priced in over the next 24m not 2.
I like this paid cadence of posts. Keep it up
Great piece. It is a kaleidoscope of cross currents out there. Today’s gold and silver move was a surprise. I completed last week an Irish exit over several months into $RFIX, Harley Bassman’s timely (but early) and latest ETF, which provides a 4.5% carry and holds a six year call on duration. There’s lots of room for 10Y yields to come in and rate vol is cheap as chips.
Great piece.
Any thoughts on Michael Howell’s commentary on global liquidity starting to taper off? Potentially leading to the unwind of the crowded long ai trade you’re talking about?
didn't see it, what's he referring to rates? cb balance sheets? credit? I haven't look at these in a little bit
He just suggests that by his calculation the rate of expansion of bank reserves and collateral in the system is slowing after a 3 year expansion. And so he suggests that risk assets are going to be extremely sensitive to this slowing.
ill take a look thx
What is your time frame for a trade like TLT or another bond proxy?
already closed my steepner. will look to see how the market is playing tomorrow, I think if we go lower, we see something like 4-6 cuts priced in over the next 24m not 2.
Ty