A Proactive Peace Plan for Taiwan
Why can't we all just get along?
What if the South won the American Civil War?
What if the Union was forced to flee New York, and start a new country on the banks of Long Island?
Now ~100 years later, it was the Confederacy on the ascent, and the United States of Long Island remained a steadfast and stubborn thorn in their side. Limiting not only it’s ability to project power in the Atlantic, but it’s control over a powerful new technology.
The Confederacy, ascendant and gripped in the passion of nationalism, endlessly repeating an idea ad nauseum, like a mantra, until it became a clarion call:
Long Island is part of America.
Long Island is part of America.
How long would you expect that to continue?
Well dear reader, look no further than the 4th Taiwan straight crisis. Complete with handy computer animations straight from the People’s Liberation Army (PLA):
Imagine Verizon producing content glorifying an amphibious invasion of Cuba.
Imagine the US routinely playing Russian roulette with the air defenses of Mexico…
…while nuclear armed neighbors played chicken.
War games that look more like “war”, and less like “games,“ everyday.
Wargames with the potential to kick off a potentially global conflict. Embroiling South Korea, Japan, the South China Sea, Australia and India.
You might think we need to de-escalate the situation.
So with that in mind, here’s a proactive peace plan for Taiwan:
The Plan
Step 1 - Acknowledge legitimate interests
The latter being pillars of American foreign policy since Woodrow Wilson’s 14 points:
Step 2. Enshrine the status quo to prevent escalation
Let’s start with a 50 year status quo followed by referendum vote on unification.
If China wants to convince the locals to join the mainland, they are welcome to make the argument with carrots not sticks. They will then have 50 years to reverse the trend of Chinese aggression forging a unique Taiwanese national identity.
Step 3 - Tactical Retreat
Kinmen Island and the other Taiwanese possessions within 10 nautical miles of mainland China go to the PRC.
Put it this way, how would Americans feel if the other side of a civil war had artillery on Ellis Island?
These islands may be culturally relevant, but are neither militarily defensible nor economically essential. Hand them over.
Step 4 - Split the remaining surplus
Most notably, the overlapping claims on the Senkaku Islands, which have been found to overlap with major deep water petrochemical fields.
Oil surplus is then split 40% PRC, 40% Japan (who also has a claim) and 20% Taiwan.
Step 5 - De-militarize the conflict.
The fact that the Taiwan Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) covers mainland China is a bit of a joke. Rather than perpetuate a bogus claim, one that is routinely trolled by the PLAAF, Taiwan aught to bring it’s air space claims in line with a country of it’s size and situation. Not a good time to overreach.
Meaning, these flight paths would be fine:
But the PLA would refrain from, for example, flying jets or drones over Taiwan proper.
Just some thoughts. I’m no military expert, just a guy with a substack and dream. With this much zero-sum logic at work, maybe we need to think outside the box.
Till next time.
North Star
great read