Thanks for the article, thought provoking as usual. thoughts re: #9 #10 #11. The share gains for Gemini are notable. Shows that distribution is key for LLM usage which highlights the bifurcation between general users (pay with eyeballs [ads] vs wallet, distribution key, basically mirrors search, likely GOOG wins) vs power users (pay w wallet or custom local install [as you did, I have as well, deepseek very efficient local and not firewalled when local btw but you may be concerned about origin/bias, or consultant install - very good biz for BCG / Deloitte etc). Love the idea for video games, hope that is being worked on!
Timing wise for oil, it would take a long while before supplies from Venezuela (and Iran if that happens) come online - buildup is required first. Any thoughts around how to incorporate it into the plan?
Right or wrong, I love the enthusiasm and energy oozing from the page here. (I do agree with almost all of your takes here—so I think you’re more right than wrong).
Assuming the Phase 1/2 schedule is (roughly) true, seems like a better tactic for investing around the AI CAPEX cycle may be launching a distressed fund after a bust. Maybe there won't be the same wave of defaults and restructurings as prior cycles - today's CAPEX drivers are highly cash-flow generative - but they may need to restructure (optimize) their balance sheets if/when that happens. Basic liquidity provision. It only requires spotting a bubble ex-post, not ex-ante - the latter of which seems like a fool's errand, given all the moving parts required to forecast compute supply/demand (what if quantum computing...). At least to this macro analyst.
How do you think about the extremely large unrealized losses that Japanese banks have on their JGB positions? Does it not matter because they will hold to maturity, so from now going forward they have increased profitability with no downside?
like every year. practice value investing. Buy the hated. Make money. Simple as that. While LLM in games and content is interesting, its not sure that end user demand matches the buildup.
Any reco for tin miners or etf ?
can’t do single stock recs. No etf for tin I know
theres $TINM by WisdomTree
Great read! Any thoughts on specific ETFs to continue to play AI Capex build-out? I’m ok w/ active managed if good manager with right concentrations….
Thanks for the article, thought provoking as usual. thoughts re: #9 #10 #11. The share gains for Gemini are notable. Shows that distribution is key for LLM usage which highlights the bifurcation between general users (pay with eyeballs [ads] vs wallet, distribution key, basically mirrors search, likely GOOG wins) vs power users (pay w wallet or custom local install [as you did, I have as well, deepseek very efficient local and not firewalled when local btw but you may be concerned about origin/bias, or consultant install - very good biz for BCG / Deloitte etc). Love the idea for video games, hope that is being worked on!
Timing wise for oil, it would take a long while before supplies from Venezuela (and Iran if that happens) come online - buildup is required first. Any thoughts around how to incorporate it into the plan?
Right or wrong, I love the enthusiasm and energy oozing from the page here. (I do agree with almost all of your takes here—so I think you’re more right than wrong).
Thanks!
Top take Alex, thank you! Appreciate it! Have a great 2026!
P.S. currently working also on my 2026 Top 25 Predictions, going live this Sunday!
Assuming the Phase 1/2 schedule is (roughly) true, seems like a better tactic for investing around the AI CAPEX cycle may be launching a distressed fund after a bust. Maybe there won't be the same wave of defaults and restructurings as prior cycles - today's CAPEX drivers are highly cash-flow generative - but they may need to restructure (optimize) their balance sheets if/when that happens. Basic liquidity provision. It only requires spotting a bubble ex-post, not ex-ante - the latter of which seems like a fool's errand, given all the moving parts required to forecast compute supply/demand (what if quantum computing...). At least to this macro analyst.
For more context. I have been looking at Vista Shares AIS & POW ETFs. Newer manager but some industry vets at the helm
How do you think about the extremely large unrealized losses that Japanese banks have on their JGB positions? Does it not matter because they will hold to maturity, so from now going forward they have increased profitability with no downside?
https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/462226/end-times-crisis-history-lessons-cliodynamics-collase-society
like every year. practice value investing. Buy the hated. Make money. Simple as that. While LLM in games and content is interesting, its not sure that end user demand matches the buildup.
"Five different agents, talking to each other" -> any advise on how to put a setup like this, any pointer materials?