Thanks for the article, thought provoking as usual. thoughts re: #9 #10 #11. The share gains for Gemini are notable. Shows that distribution is key for LLM usage which highlights the bifurcation between general users (pay with eyeballs [ads] vs wallet, distribution key, basically mirrors search, likely GOOG wins) vs power users (pay w wallet or custom local install [as you did, I have as well, deepseek very efficient local and not firewalled when local btw but you may be concerned about origin/bias, or consultant install - very good biz for BCG / Deloitte etc). Love the idea for video games, hope that is being worked on!
Timing wise for oil, it would take a long while before supplies from Venezuela (and Iran if that happens) come online - buildup is required first. Any thoughts around how to incorporate it into the plan?
Right or wrong, I love the enthusiasm and energy oozing from the page here. (I do agree with almost all of your takes here—so I think you’re more right than wrong).
Assuming the Phase 1/2 schedule is (roughly) true, seems like a better tactic for investing around the AI CAPEX cycle may be launching a distressed fund after a bust. Maybe there won't be the same wave of defaults and restructurings as prior cycles - today's CAPEX drivers are highly cash-flow generative - but they may need to restructure (optimize) their balance sheets if/when that happens. Basic liquidity provision. Requiring little alpha in ex-ante identifying a bust, which seems like a fool's errand, given all the moving parts required to forecast compute supply/demand (what if quantum computing...). At least to this macro analyst.
Any reco for tin miners or etf ?
can’t do single stock recs. No etf for tin I know
Thanks for the article, thought provoking as usual. thoughts re: #9 #10 #11. The share gains for Gemini are notable. Shows that distribution is key for LLM usage which highlights the bifurcation between general users (pay with eyeballs [ads] vs wallet, distribution key, basically mirrors search, likely GOOG wins) vs power users (pay w wallet or custom local install [as you did, I have as well, deepseek very efficient local and not firewalled when local btw but you may be concerned about origin/bias, or consultant install - very good biz for BCG / Deloitte etc). Love the idea for video games, hope that is being worked on!
Timing wise for oil, it would take a long while before supplies from Venezuela (and Iran if that happens) come online - buildup is required first. Any thoughts around how to incorporate it into the plan?
Right or wrong, I love the enthusiasm and energy oozing from the page here. (I do agree with almost all of your takes here—so I think you’re more right than wrong).
Thanks!
Top take Alex, thank you! Appreciate it! Have a great 2026!
P.S. currently working also on my 2026 Top 25 Predictions, going live this Sunday!
Assuming the Phase 1/2 schedule is (roughly) true, seems like a better tactic for investing around the AI CAPEX cycle may be launching a distressed fund after a bust. Maybe there won't be the same wave of defaults and restructurings as prior cycles - today's CAPEX drivers are highly cash-flow generative - but they may need to restructure (optimize) their balance sheets if/when that happens. Basic liquidity provision. Requiring little alpha in ex-ante identifying a bust, which seems like a fool's errand, given all the moving parts required to forecast compute supply/demand (what if quantum computing...). At least to this macro analyst.